January 30, 2008
It seems like population growth has no end in sight for the state of Utah. However, obviously not every region of the Nation is experiencing the same growth. An interesting article in the recent Economist addresses this issue of population decreasing in the Midwest. Looking at this map you can see one of the reason why Utah’s economy is currently stronger than most of nation.
You can read the full article here: the-great-plains-drain.pdf
January 29, 2008
January has been full of speculation about Utah’s economy and the economy throughout the rest of the nation. There is no question that the housing market has cooled, but there are other economic indicators in Utah that still appear optimistic. In an effort to better understand the strength of Utah’s economy Doug Macdonald prepared this handout, an assessment of a number of salient economic indicators, for Monday’s LPC meeting. The factors reviewed are:
Each of these indicators is reviewed with either a red, yellow, or green light (green meaning things still look positive). You can view the pdf here: utah-eco-indicators.pdf
January 15, 2008
At least a dozen states are anticipating significant budget shortfalls in 2008. The biggest crisis is occurring in California where Governor Schwarzenegger has declared a fiscal emergency — after reporting a $4.6 billion revenue shortfall. Schwarzenegger recommended reducing every state program by 10%. One in interesting quote in the article comes from Iris Lav (deputy director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:
“It’s amazing how sales tax revenues are tied to the housing market,” said Iris J. Lav, deputy director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “People aren’t buying construction materials, people aren’t furnishing new homes. Some states also have real estate transfer taxes.”
Doug Macdonald, ULCT economic consultant, has been saying the same thing. In fact, at our September Annual Conference Doug presented on the cycle of residential development. In this presentation Doug stated that for every $1 billion decrease in residential construction values, taxable sales in Utah could drop by 3%. Utah is not one of the handful of states that is experiencing the budget shortfall this year…but historically Utah has been a year or two behind the national curve. So what can we anticipate in 2009? The way things look right now (with national trends and a slowing local housing market) I would bet on some level of a budget shortfall for the next FY. You can read a couple of recent articles here:
Cycles Happen — November ULCT Newsletter
January 15, 2008
After a few month hiatus from blogging I’m back and recommitted. I figured today is a good day to relaunch the blog since today is also the first day of our new website: ULCT website (thanks to the great work of our new friends at Utah Interactive). So what is the topic of the first blog post of 2008? Budgets and taxes, of course…
The ULCT staff has continued with tradition and have spent our winter (post municipal election years) touring the state offering training to newly elected municipal officials. One piece of the half day training seminar is a presentation offered by Roger Tew and myself. Cities still left on the training tour are:
Our presentation of budgets and taxes is focused more of the overall fiscal policies of municipal government and less on the exact nuances of managing a budget. For example, we spend a large portion of the presentation addressing the policy questions related to each revenue stream utilized by local government (property tax, sales tax, and fees). If you are interested in the presentation you can access it here: Taxes presentation to Newly Elected Officials 2008
Or if you have questions please contact me at nabercrombie@ulct.org
