July 2, 2012 Local Option Sales Tax Distribution: June 2012
June’s distribution came out last week and was up 1.5% compared to last year. Even though this appears to be slower growth, it looks like it fits a pattern of slow growth in the first month of a quarter, followed by average growth in the second, and double-digit growth in the third month of the quarter.
For the first 10 months of the fiscal year the statewide 1% is up 7.7%, a bit higher than our December 2011 forecast of 6.4% and much higher than our pessimistic estimate of 2.4% (which assumed a European disorganized default, double-dipping the U.S. into recession).
Several of the major cities we track had significant decreases and one had a huge gain in June. Park City and Murray were down almost 50%, while South Jordan jumped 102%. We think these changes had something to do the truing-up adjustments in the hold-harmless formula, but have not confirmed that.
In sum, a great year for most cities !!!
If you have further questions, please feel free to give me a call,
Doug Macdonald
Economic Policy Analyst
801 550-3161
dougmacdonald@mac.com
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