An interesting new report has been released this weekend by Brookings called Mountain Megas (you can read the Deseret News article about the report here). America’s Intermountain West is experiencing some of the highest rates of population growth and economic/demographic change in the country. The region—consisting of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah—has grown nearly three times faster than the United States as a whole over the past two decades. The entire state of Utah has been impacted by this incredible growth, from Cache County to Washington County. The report “describes and assesses the new supersized reality of the Intermountain West.”

The region [Intermountain West] is growing up, flexing its muscles, and distancing itself from California, which historically has had an outsized impact on the West’s development.

The lead author for this report is Dr. Robert Lang, a Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution and co-Director of the Virginia Tech Metropolitan Institute. Dr. Lang spoke at a ULCT sponsored forum last April, his presentation was followed up by an interesting panel discussion including Soren Simonson (Salt Lake City), Rick Horst (South Jordan), and Mike Coulam (Sandy City).

Not everything is rosy for the Megapolitan regions however. Dr. Lang points out that local leaders have enormous pressure to maintain and keep up with infrastructure demands. This highlights the point that we have talked about before…population growth creates a lot positives, but also creates a lot of costs to local government. Dr. Lang advocates a partnership between federal, state, and municipal officials to address this situation.  With regard to the infrastructure pressure Dr Lang says:

We think the country is so deteriorating in terms of quality of its infrastructure — that they’re so behind — that there will be a moment of shock when the country understands this under-investment will jeopardize its economic development. You would hope that there would be enough at stake that the federal government would gain a recognition of this and realize that this pattern that we’re on is at the nation’s peril.

Robert Lang Forum – April 17th, 2008

Mountain Megas — Executive Summary

Mountain Megas — Wasatch Front Profile

I’m not trying to be a Wednesday Debbie Downer, but is anyone else getting depressed when checking the national headlines? Seriously take a look at the headlines throughout the Wall Street Journal this morning…

I had to stop scanning after these four headlines…The question is how does this financial crisis (are we officially calling this a recession now?) affect city halls across the state of Utah? This perpetual bad news for the market can definitely impact a number of local government revenue sources — especially sales tax. The question becomes what degree is this impacting local revenue and what can we do (or when will this stop).

Joining us at our 101st Annual Convention will be Geoffrey Colvin, a senior editor for Fortune Magazine. Mr. Colvin will offer key insights to what is happening with the economy right now, what is cause for concern, and what may be cause for optimism. In fact in one of Colvin’s recent columns for Fortune he writes:

The trouble with gloom is that when you’re surrounded by it, that’s all you can see. A sunny tomorrow could be on its way, but the present darkness is definite. Obviously I’m talking about the economy, not the weather, and I’d like to propose the radical thought that, contrary to the evidence that surrounds us right now, just possibly the apocalypse is not at hand.

It is comforting to know that at least apocalypse is not at hand…You can read the full column here: The anti-doomsday scenario

Whether Mr. Colvin delivers good news or bad news I don’t think you’ll want to miss him as our Thursday lunch (September 11th) keynote speaker. (you can see the full conference agenda here: ULCT Convention)

Nearly a year ago we started our Making Life Better Campaign, which provides resources to help Utah’s local officals tell their story about the services provided in their respective municipalities. Our theory is that many a’ property-tax-paying Utahn has little idea what they’re getting for their annual “contributions.” You know, pretty important stuff like parks, roads, water, storm water, snow removal, streets lights, and the list goes on, or not, depending on the community. The graphic below is one to communicate this message.

Well, it seems the Local Government Association in Great Britain at taking our lead and have decided to remind their constituents of the critical services they provide in the mother country. Seems they too don’t think folks fully understand the bang they get for their buck…er, i mean pound. Anyway, based on one of the photos they are using in the campaign, there appear to be some, well, shall we say, “cultural differences” between municipalities in Utah and GB. You can read the full article here.

Conference preview.

I thought this was an interesting post on the CEOs for Cities blog…the “world’s first contextual drainage system“? Maybe this is exactly what is needed to spice up a cities’ downtown. However, I have no idea what this costs…and with many cities looking to cut budgets wherever possible I’m assuming this is pretty cost prohibitive. But an interesting idea nonetheless. And this is a blog about ideas, right Brian?

There are a number of great advantages to walking…increased health, opportunity to visit with neighbors, plus anything that decreases your dependence on fuel is great right now. We all can save a little $$$ by walking to a few more destinations. My neighborhood only scored a 46 out of a 100…but I did beat Brian’s neighborhood by 4 points.

Determine your neighborhood walk score

Are increasing gas prices to blame for the bubble bursting in the housing market? According to a recent report conducted by the Ceos for Cities organization there is some relationship between gas prices and the housing market. Or more specifically, they claim that the price of homes in the suburbs is being forced to come down because people can’t afford the increase gas costs…so they either need cheaper suburban homes or live closer to work.

The collapse of the housing bubble, punctured by the gas price spike, marks a watershed point for the nation’s suburbs. When gas was cheap, buying a house in a distant suburb where housing prices were cheaper seemed like an affordable housing choice for many families. But as the more severe decline in housing prices on the urban fringe over the past year illustrates, $3 a gallon gas has made low density development a false economy across the nation.

I don’t know if I buy into the complete conclusions of this report, but I think it does raise some important housing accessibility and affordability questions for policy makers. Is demand going to increase for more urban homes? But what about the argument that more affordable homes are in the suburbs? You can read the full study here: Driven to the Brink

Oh and another article in the Deseret News today about gas prices in Utah have hit another all-time high…$3.47 a gallon. Read the article here.

There is no question that the baby boomers are beginning to reach retirement age. Over 300 Americans turn 60 each hour of the day. So what does this mean? Should we fear the increasing over 65 population and the potential costs this will create for government? John B. Shoven, an economics professor at Stanford recently explored the potential affect this aging population could have. Shoven (in a recent article published by Foreign Policy) writes:

There is a looming catastrophe stalking the developed world. It promises to devastate the global economy, overwhelm hospitals, and decimate armed forces. What is the calamity that promises such misfortune? Not a killer virus, deadly terrorist attack, or natural disaster. It’s the aging of the world’s baby boomers, the coming tidal wave of senior citizens who will live longer, consume more, and produce less, seriously challenging societies’ ability to care for their graying ranks.

This is the sentiment that is presented by a number of policymakers. However, Shoven argues that the way we measure age is flawed. Specifically, a 65 year old today is not the same as a 65 year old a few decades ago. In fact, according to Shoven’s numbers, a 65 year old man in 1940 could expect to live 11 more years. Today a 65 year old man has a life expectancy of another 17 years. Or a 65 year old today is the equivalent (according to mortality rates) as a 59 year old in 1970.

Does this mean we should up the retirement age? I’m not necessarily advocating that…but this does add an additional factor to our discussion of dependency ratios and aging demographics. While it is true the baby boomers are coming, it sounds like 65 may soon be the new 55.

Did you know that Mesa, Arizona is now larger than Miami or St. Louis? Or another suburb of Phoenix, Peoria, is now larger than Peoria IL? The population growth in America throughout the last few decades has largely occurred in the suburbs, or the “Boomburbs” according to Dr. Robert Lang.  Lang was in Salt Lake City yesterday to present his research regarding the trend of boomburbs across the nation and the population growth of the west. Recently Lang’s book Boomburbs: The Rise of America’s Accidential Citieswas published by Brookings (I blogged about the book a year ago: here).  Lang’s afternoon lecture at the U of U and evening forum at the SLC Library raised a number of important questions related to our growth here in Utah. A few issues were especially relevant:

• How does a city transition from it’s “cowboy” or country heritage to an urbanized environment? Meaning if we are going to add 1 million more residents to the Wasatch Front (by 2060 Salt Lake County is projected to be over 2 million in population) how will this increased density reshape our notion of community in the suburbs? We are beginning to see this already with sleepy suburban communities now growing to over 100,000 in population.
• How can cities incentivize significant economic development? How important is transportation infrastructure? Or a walkable space that residents enjoy? These are few issues addressed by Lang.

In addition to the presentation from Dr. Lang the evening forum also included the perspective of three panelists: Soren Simonson (Salt Lake City councilman), Rick Horst (South Jordan city manager) and Mike Coulam (Sandy City community development director). These three officials all contributed to an interesting discussion. Thanks again to Dr. Lang and our panelists (and KCPW for broadcasting the forum).

You can listen to the KCPW podcast here: Dr. Robert Lang Forum

The debate over sales tax driving economic decisions (or the “zoning for dollars”) has been an important discussion for local officials for years.  Despite the years of debate it isn’t exactly clear how much sales tax revenue dictates local land use decisions and more importantly to what extent the economic development incentives of the state are different than the economic development incentives of cities and towns. We know that cities have a large dependency on sales tax. However, the state frequently pursues higher paying jobs than retail (which does not provide immediate financial incentives to cities). However, the puzzle of economic development is complicated…sales tax is also important to the state (generating nearly $2 billion and over 34% of the GF budget) and high paying jobs are key to the quality of life of cities and towns.  In my opinion the economic development decisions are not singularly dictated by tax revenue incentives. Not to mention other factors such as demographics, infrustructure, and quality of life factors that may play a more important role than tax structure on business decisions.

Anyhow Utah Foundation explores these questions in an interesting recent report: local-economic-development-utah-foundation

The sales tax may actually be a more balanced economic incentive than it seems at first glance. Many retailers prefer locating in a city with good jobs and well-to-do residents, creating an incentive for cities to pursue balanced development to foster strong retail sales.