October’s distribution (released last week) at $44.64 million was 5.1% higher than last year’s $42.46 million in local 1% sales taxes. Among the select, large cities we watch, 10 of the 24 cities recorded distributions which grew in double digits in the October distribution, which represents sales largely from August.
Across the nation, retail sales in August were up 2.2% and new light vehicle sales were up 5.2% compared to a year earlier.
In Salt Lake County, distributions in Draper, Holladay and South Jordan were up in double digits. Solid gains were recorded in Murray, Midvale and West Valley. Salt Lake’s distribution was up slightly less than the state average at 4.1%. But due to its population drop of 0.8%, Salt Lake’s soft distribution gain of 4.1%, actually meant a stronger 6.0% increase in sales for the month.
Davis County sales were up near 8%, where Bountiful, Kaysville and Farmington distributions rose more than 10%. Distribution gains that high translate to near 20% gains in actual sales.
In Utah County, Provo and Lehi’s distribution were up near 11%.
Strong distributions were experienced in tourist areas of St. George (6.2%), Park City (10.4%) and Moab (7.5%).
The Tax Commission will distribute $43.12 million this month, compared to $40.35 million last year, an increase of 6.8%. This is the first month of fiscal year 2015-16. Fiscal year 2015 finished out with a 5.3% increase with $518.1 million distributed for the 1% local sales tax.
Solid advances were made across Salt Lake County with SLC up 7.5%, Sandy up 6% and West Valley up 7.9%.
South Jordan’s distribution of $1.03 million was up 49%, implying a direct sales gain of 86.8% for July sales.
Except for Centerville, Davis County cities fared well too. Layton and Bountiful distributions were up almost 9%. Farmington and Kaysville’s distributions grew near 10% or more.
In Southern Utah, St. George’s distribution rose 8.9%, stronger than the recent past. Moab’s distribution rose a bit higher at 10.8%.
Also released by the Commission on the internet yesterday were second quarter taxable sales, which for Salt Lake County rose 5.6% compared to a year earlier (see chart below for industry breakdowns).
The Tax Commission distributed $50.45 million in local 1% sales taxes today, up 5.8% from the same month last year. The August distribution represents sales from June and includes second quarter returns from smaller accounts.
The August distribution is also the final month for fiscal year 2015. At $518 million statewide, fiscal year 2015’s 1% local sales tax distributions were up 5.3% compared to FY2014’s 4.0% increase. Our forecast in December 2013 called for a 3.7% gain.
June’s 5.8% gain was strong relative to the nationwide increase in retail trade sales of 1.8%.
The largest city in the state, Salt Lake City, saw its distribution rise 1.3% in August. Since its population impact was -0.8% and the state’s overall gain was 5.8%, we compute its direct sales were down 1.7% in August. Its three month average distribution was up 5.8% and its fiscal year-to-date gain was 5.6%.
17% distribution gains were recorded in South Jordan and Lehi in August. Midvale (12%), Holladay (10.6%) and Centerville (12.7%) recorded gains in the low teens.
Surprisingly, Moab posted a near 9% distribution decrease from last year.
We were unaware that July’s distribution included new population numbers from the Bureau of the Census to the Tax Commission.
Because these new numbers impact the “computed direct sales”, I revised July’s distribution report.
In most cases, this doesn’t affect computed direct sales much, except for Holladay, South Jordan and Lehi, whose population changes were pretty big in 2015. Holladay’s population increased 13.4% in 2015. Subtracting the state’s population increase of 1.45% and then multiplying by 50% (due to the formula), its population impact will be an additional 6% each month in FY2016.
I am also including a spreadsheet with the new population numbers for July 2015 and the monthly impact on your distributions.
There probably should be another calculation backing out the hold-harmless cities, so these are approximate.
Nevertheless, I hope that this will be useful to you as you watch FY2016 distributions unfold.
Following last month’s 8.6% increase, the Tax Commission’s July 2015 distribution for the 1% local sales tax at $38.98 million was up 0.3% compared to a year earlier. This is consistent with what we talked about last month:
“ …it is possible that extraordinary inclusions of May transactions bolstered the June distribution; this would cut into next month’s distribution.”
A better gauge for the recent trend is the sum of the distributions for the last three months. which has increased 4.4%. In addition, total distributions for first 11 months of fiscal year 2014-15 are up 5.2%.
Nationwide, retail sales rose 2.7% in May, while new light-vehicle sales were up 6%. Disposable incomes were up 3.5% in May compared to a year earlier.
Distributions in Salt Lake County (up 1.2%) for July 2015 were mixed. On the plus side, Holladay’s distribution rose 13%, followed by South Jordan’s 4.1% and Salt Lake City and Draper’s 3.6%. Distributions in Midvale, West Valley and West Jordan were less than in July 2014.
Distributions in Davis County (up 2.3%) were a bit stronger. Farmington’s 9.3% gain was followed by a 6.2% increase in Kaysville and a 4% gain in Layton. Bountiful and Centerville posted lower distributions.
Lower distributions were also found in most of Utah and Weber counties.
Resort cities (Moab up 14.4%, and St. George up 5.7%) fared better than most cities along the Wasatch Front.
The economic indicators we look at are all green for the first time in many years.
Utah employment is growing almost 4% and average wages grew nearly 2% in the first quarter. Unemployment claims are down 10% and construction employment is up between 4% and 7% this year.
New construction is also improving, residential is up 9% in the last 3 months and commercial is up 70%.
Stimulating new car and truck sales is consumer sentiment, which was up to 96.1 in June. This is a long way from the low of 55 in 2009.
For the first 10 months of FY 2015, the 1% local sales tax was up 5.7% for all cities, 4.2% over the last quarter and up nearly 9% last month.
Compare the Stop Lights this month from those in 2009 for a big contrast.