August 17, 2009 Coincident Index — How far has Utah’s economy dropped?
Each month the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia releases their coincident index report for all 50 states. This index evaluates a series of employment related data to determine the economic growth or decline by state. The data analyzed each month is:
- nonfarm payroll employment
- average hours worked in manufacturing
- the unemployment rate
- wage and salary disbursements (deflated by CPI)
For the latest report (June 2009) the index for 46 states has declined. Only 3 states increased (Mississippi, North Dakota, and Vermont). If you review the map above the darker the red the more the coincident index decline for that state through the last three months.
Below is a map of Utah’s index from January 2001. According to this chart Utah’s economic production for June 2009 is at the same level as December 2006. Does this mean that in forecasting your 2010 budget you should look back to your 2006 budget? Maybe…we’ll talk about this today in LPC.
If you would like to compare this chart for Utah to many of the Western states take a look at this pdf: Coincident Index for Western States (LPC presentation August 17).